Coming off last night’s news that the Trump administration has reportedly abandoned its original Iran war goals, today’s update only made the bigger point more obvious: This war is already shrinking politically even as the risks keep growing militarily.
Remember what the administration originally claimed it wanted. Regime change. Permanent destruction of Iran’s nuclear program. Now the goal is reportedly just reopening the Strait of Hormuz. That’s where we were before the invasion. So after all this, after the chaos, the deaths, the market panic, and the spike in gas prices, the new objective is basically to get back to the status quo ante. Which means, yes, this could have been achieved by not attacking Iran in the first place.
And even that reduced goal may be slipping away. Former Trump officials are now openly saying Iran effectively controls the strait. If the US declared victory right now, Iran could turn around and act like it owns passage through one of the most important waterways on earth, reportedly even charging ships millions to pass through waters that are supposed to be international. That tells you how badly this has gone already.
What makes it even crazier is that Trump is now reportedly talking about some kind of joint control of the Strait of Hormuz with Iran. Think about how absurd that is. Before the war, nobody controlled it. It was an international waterway. Now, after launching a war, Trump may be preparing to reward Iran with partial control over a route that carries enormous shares of the world’s oil, natural gas, and other critical goods. That isn’t victory. That’s a huge concession. I thought we were winning. I thought a week ago nothing less than unconditional surrender would be accepted. So why are we now talking about giving half the Strait to Iran?
At the same time, there are growing reports of major US troop and equipment movements into the region, while Gulf states like Saudi Arabia are reportedly urging Trump to finish the job and overthrow the Iranian government. But “finish the job” is doing a lot of work there. It means something much bigger. It means a ground invasion, not just more airstrikes. So on one side the White House appears to be testing a diplomatic endgame, even reportedly considering Iran’s parliamentary speaker as some kind of future partner or leader. On the other side, it’s still building up militarily. Trump is, as usual, all over the place. And probably lying, or just confused. Thus forever the TACO.
The American public, meanwhile, seems a lot clearer than the White House. Polling shows the overwhelming priority for voters is ending the war as quickly as possible. Not open-ended escalation. End it.
Then there’s the part that really stinks, but really isn’t a surprise. The Financial Times reports that traders placed about half a billion dollars in oil bets just minutes before Trump’s announcement about “productive” talks with Iran sent crude prices tumbling. CNN found similarly suspicious betting patterns on Polymarket, including a near-perfect win rate on large Iran-related bets. At some point, when we get our government and our country back, we are going to need such a massive investigation of all of this corruption.
And the economic fallout is already here. Gas prices are still rising, oil is climbing again, and Americans are paying more because of this war. Add in a huge refinery explosion in Texas, which at minimum came at a deeply unnerving moment, and the whole picture gets uglier fast.
Then there’s the rest of the day’s news, which somehow is its own separate parade of corruption and hypocrisy. Republicans had a deal with Democrats to fund TSA, and Trump killed it because he didn’t want a deal with Democrats, ever. The administration is reportedly considering inviting Belarus dictator Alexander Lukashenko to meet Trump. Hungary’s foreign minister casually admits he updates Russia after EU meetings. Ukraine blew apart a major Russian oil export hub, and Russia reportedly took more than 6,000 casualties in just four days of a failed offensive. Ukraine also says it has irrefutable evidence Russia is still feeding intelligence to Iran to help target US troops, even thought Trump said Putin promised he they didn’t and wouldn’t. Yeah, well they did.
And because there is apparently no limit to the hypocrisy, Trump is publicly attacking mail voting this week while voting by mail himself this week.
That’s where things stand. The war aims are shrinking. The danger is growing. The insiders may be cashing in. And the administration still has no coherent plan beyond improvisation, contradiction, and spin.
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