Iran Ground Invasion

Trump keeps drifting toward a wider war with Iran, and the pattern is getting harder to ignore. Axios reports he’s considering either a blockade of, or even a land move against, Kharg Island, which handles most of Iran’s oil exports. That matters because we already know what happens when Trump or Israel hits Iran’s energy infrastructure. Iran retaliates by going after Gulf energy infrastructure, and US prices skyrocket. Trump approved an attack on Iran’s gas sector, Iran answered by hitting major facilities in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and now the world is staring at years of disruption, higher energy prices, and more instability. So the question isn’t whether Iran would respond. The question is why Trump keeps acting shocked when it does.

And the White House rhetoric is getting uglier. One source described the plan as weakening Iran for another month, taking the island, and then using that leverage in negotiations. Fine. But leverage cuts both ways. If Iran answers by blowing up more Saudi oil, more Qatari gas, or wider Gulf infrastructure, then suddenly America isn’t squeezing Iran. Iran is squeezing the global economy. That’s the part these people keep pretending not to understand. You don’t casually play games with the energy arteries of the Middle East and expect no military, and then economic, blowback.

Next up, boots on the ground…